A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
