Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a pivotal trip to the US capital to meet US President Donald Trump. This constitutes the initial face-to-face meeting for the two leaders following an extended period of rising tensions and sharp exchanges.
Agenda for Talks
Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, security, and American military actions on suspected drug vessels are set to be top on the list of topics when they meet at the White House on the scheduled day.
Background of Tensions
Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation following a January US military operation, Petro has since said he feels there is a "serious risk" of military action against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously commented that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".
The upcoming meeting comes after an extended period of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly condemned ongoing US strikes on suspected narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's border policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump was quoted as stating prior to the White House talks.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has accused Petro's government of not doing enough to stop the trafficking of cocaine heading north, and has pledged to expand military actions to terrestrial objectives across the region.
But, the acrimony appeared to dissipate following a "cordial" telephone conversation between the two presidents, which a source from Bogotá later described as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".
Mediating Role
According to insiders, one man – Rand Paul – was pivotal in facilitating the dialogue. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our ties were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relations to improve."
Regional Stability and the Guerrilla Group
Prior to the visit, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would center on shared US and Colombian concerns over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long frontier.
A significant portion of that border is controlled of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, controls drug trafficking, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly works with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.
From the US perspective, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be vital to ensuring safety for US firms involved in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts point out that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt economic ambitions by targeting foreign investors and employees, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Collaboration
An equally pressing matter for the two presidents will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global largest producer of the narcotic. In November, Petro ordered a temporary pause on intelligence sharing with US authorities following comments from Washington.
The US has, in turn, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on Colombian officials, encompassing the president and members of his family.
"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a analyst. "Any move to cut off Colombian cooperation could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Possible Scenarios
Despite several areas for cooperation, the potential for a confrontation remains. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... But one never knows."
For the Colombian leader, even a difficult meeting could be beneficial. His time in office concludes soon, and the results of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable situation," said a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well undermines opposition arguments... If talks sour, he's defending Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."
