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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still